How old is the Devil’s Hole pupfish?

Authors: Craig* Stockwell, J. Michael Reed

Year: 2015 (xlvii)

Abstract

The Devil’s Hole pupfish Cyprinodon diabolis has reached iconic status amongst evolutionary and conservation biologists because of its rapid speciation and because of its vulnerability to extinction. We evaluate the widely held assumption that this species has persisted in small numbers (<600 individuals) for 10,000-20,000 years. We analyzed time series of count data, genetic estimates of time of isolation, and time to coalescence to evaluate persistence likelihood and isolation time for Devil’s Hole pupfish. We conclude that mean time to extinction is 360-2900 years, with only a 2.1% probability of having persisted at least 10,000 years. Similarly, median time to coalescence ranged from 217 to 2530 years, but all approximations had wide credible intervals. Thus, pupfish most likely colonized Devil’s Hole well after the Pleistocene Lakes receded.